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Posted: Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:39 am
So here we go. The Chicago Cubs are going to ...Wait. Get a grip. What am I doing? What am I saying? What am I getting myself into?Yes, its time for that column youve been looking, waiting for all these months. Time for that moment when I (incorrectly) tell you exactly who will (translation: wont) win the World Series.And it would be soooooo easy, soooooo safe, soooooo obvious to pick You Know Who. The best team in baseball. The winningest team in baseball. The team with the legendary 798-year World Series drought. (OK, so its 108 -- whatever.) The team that would rock the planet like no one else if it actually, finally, magically wins the World Series.But sorry, my friends. Cant do it. I made up my mind eight years ago that I am never, ever going to pick the Cubs to win the World Series again. They can thank me later.The Boston Red Sox are going to win the 2016 World Series. Thats my actual (guaranteed to be inaccurate) prediction. But when it came time to write this piece, I felt there were just as many reasons to explain why I WASNT picking the Cubs as why I WAS picking the Red Sox.So why not the Cubs? Ill get to that momentarily. But first, its time to reveal the results of my annual Whos Going to Win the World Series survey of 25 astute baseball executives. And if youre expecting a Cubs landslide here, well, the results are revealing.I asked the group to pick the team that would advance to the World Series from each league and then predict who would win it. In the case of execs from clubs in contention, I asked them just to pick a team in their league they feared most, along with the club they thought would get to the Series from the other league.I conduct this survey every year because A) its fascinating and B) hey, nothing makes me feel better about my own prognostication ineptitude than knowing that the smartest front-office minds in the game are just as awful at this as I am.Over the past two years, do you want to guess how many execs who took part in this exercise guessed the eventual winner of the World Series? That would be exactly ONE. None predicted the Giants in 2014. One picked the Royals last year. So keep that in mind as we unveil the results of this years voting:American League Favorite (or Most-Feared Team) Red Sox 16 Rangers 7 Blue Jays 2*(*Survey conducted while the wild-card race was still raging.)National League Favorite (or Most-Feared Team) Cubs 13 Dodgers 10 Nationals 2World Series Winner Cubs 7 Red Sox 6 Dodgers 4 Rangers 4So did you expect it to be that close? Nope. Me, neither. But I got the distinct vibe that many of these folks felt much like I did -- that picking the best team never makes you look like a genius anyway, so why not go down some other road?Obviously, the pick is the Cubs in the National League, quipped one NL exec. So I like the Dodgers.Too much hype about the Cubs, said another.Out of principle, I wont pick them, said an AL exec.Well, Im not sure precisely what principle is at work here. But you get the idea. So why not the Cubs? Here are four reasons why not:1. Beware of the No. 1 seed: Only two times in the past 25 postseasons has the team with sole possession of the best record in baseball won the World Series (2009 Yankees, 1998 Yankees). And to find the last time a National League team had the best record and won it all, you need to go back (gulp) 30 years -- to the 86 Mets. So theres that.2. The pressure is about to mount: In the postseason, the pressure on both teams to win is usually about 50-50, one exec said. But in this case ... the pressure is on the Cubs every game, because of how well theyve played, because of their record and, most of all, because of the expectations, especially in that city. If they lose one of the first two games at Wrigley, the pressure will be incredible.3. Whats up with Jake? Two different execs went out of their way to discuss the recent issues of Jake Arrieta, a guy whose work over his past 16 starts (4.44 ERA) looks a lot different than the superhuman impression hed been doing over the previous year and a half. Never seen him look so ordinary, one NL exec said after Arrietas last start. I would be concerned if I was them.4. The voice of doom: Finally, the last thing a team saddled with a 108-year title drought needs is MY support. Ive been writing this column before every postseason for more than a decade. Ive picked the Cubs three times -- 2003, 2007 and 2008. If you dont recall their jubilant World Series parades in any of those years, you would be correct. Thats all my fault. My prediction record is so disastrous, Im practically the Cleveland Browns of prognosticators. So why would I want to go and doom the Cubs at a time like this? If the bitter residents of Chicago ever decide to blame someone besides a billy goat, I dont need that someone to be me. I think the Cubs will get to the World Series. But somebody else can pick them to win. Im out.Phew. Glad I got that out of the way. I feel better now. But more importantly, that allows me to move along to the other big theme of this column:Five reasons the Red Sox will win1. What a lineup: The Red Sox have scored an incredible 83 more runs than the next-best offense in the American League (Cleveland). While the Blue Jays had a similar run-scoring gap last season, only one other AL team in the past 80 years has managed to put up a 100-run gap between itself and the pack -- and you need to go back all the way to the 1950 Red Sox to find that one. Their lineup is so deep and so good, said one AL exec. The way they work counts, foul balls off, wear down pitchers, theyre just so good. And they hit good pitching.2. Their strength is greater than any other teams strength: Lets get back to that last line: They hit good pitching. Or to put this in the words of a rival GM: Bostons offense is the singular best strength of all the teams. Now those are words that get my attention this time of year. When we try to break down which clubs profile best to survive the four-week October marathon, isnt that what we look for -- a team so dominant that even the best teams in the sport cant stop it from doing what it does best? And thats the Red Sox. Against pitchers who average a strikeout per inning or better, the Sox lead the major leagues in average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. Against pitchers defined as power pitchers, Bostons OPS (.798) is 65 points higher than the next-best team. But the Red Sox are also first in OPS against finesse pitchers (.848). And they went into the weekend as the only team in the past five years with an OPS of .800 or better against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. So good luck finding a matchup that looks like this teams kryptonite.3. Their rotation is better than you think: It would have been easy to theorize a month ago that this team didnt have enough starting pitching to navigate October. But you might want to rethink that. Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez have made 11 starts between them since Sept. 1. Theyve allowed two runs or fewer in eight of those starts. Nobody questions whether Rick Porcello is the real deal anymore. (Hes dangerous, super-confident, incredibly intelligent and super-aggressive, said one rival exec. Hes put it all together.) And while you can feel free to question David Prices 5.12 career postseason ERA, Id rather have him pitching Game 1 or 2 than a lot of guys, a longtime NL exec said. Price is 8-0 and 2.37 in his past eight starts against teams other than the Yankees (who wont be participating), for what thats worth.4. Their bullpen is hot: Amazing how the return of Koji Uehara has put the pieces of this bullpen back in place. Since the beginning of September, the Red Sox pen ranks second in the AL in ERA (1.81), and first in opponent average (.198) and strikeout rate (10.4 K/9). The funny thing is, aside from concerns about their left-handed relief, the most questions I heard about anyone in this bullpen were about the closer, Craig Kimbrel, mostly because of his 15 walks in his past 20 innings. (There are days it looks like he just doesnt trust himself, and I dont know why, said one scout.) But if the biggest worry in this bullpen is a man with 83 strikeouts and just 28 hits in 53 innings, that doesnt sound like much of a crisis to me.5. Papi Power: Every once in a while in sports, the script writes itself. So theres just something about the way the stars keep lining up for David Ortizs retirement tour that feels as if there could be one more incredible chapter to come. One NL exec admits that when he picked the Red Sox, thats part of the equation. Theres definitely something magical about it. Well, if there is, you might want to file this away. According to Elias Sports Bureau research, only two position players in the past 60 years (Dal Maxvill and Gene Tenace, back in the 1960s, 70s and 80s) have won four World Series without sneaking onto the Yankees. And nobody has won four for a team that wasnt the Yankees since Jim Gilliam did it for the Dodgers in the 50s and 60s. Well, Big Papi already has three rings. And October looms.So there you have it. Five carefully thought-out reasons why this pick makes sense, backed with the reassuring support of a bunch of really bright people in the game. Now what could possibly go wrong?Outside of the fact that any team in this tournament (including the Cubs) could turn into the 2014 Giants as soon as this fun begins, I can think of only one thing that could get in the way of the Red Soxs fourth ride on the duck boats in the past 12 years:That they just got picked by me to win it all, of course. Which means theyre now officially doomed. Hydro Flask 12 Oz Coffee . But the quarterback hopes to stay involved in football after officially calling it quits Tuesday. "Id love to look at those opportunities as they arise," Pierce said in an interview from his Winnipeg eatery. Water Bottle Hydro Flask 32 oz Wide Mouth Mint . At a Manhattan federal court hearing, attorney Jordan Siev said his law office has gotten more evidence nearly every day to support its lawsuit accusing MLB and Selig of going on a "witch hunt" to ruin Rodriguezs reputation and career. He said the defendants went "way over the line. http://www.hydroflaskaustralia.com/ . The move comes after the Canadiens were approached by the Buffalo Sabres for permission to speak to Dudley - a former Sabres player and head coach. "The Sabres called for permission and I appreciate that, Im flattered, Dudley told TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun of ESPN. Water Bottle Hydro Flask Coffee 12 oz Coffee Mint . -- Canadian Andrew Wiggins got the ball on the wing, made a nifty spin move and then let go with a soft floater from about 10 feet that swished through the net in Allen Fieldhouse. Hydro Flask Australia . "I wrote 36 on my sheet at the beginning of the game," the Cincinnati coach said, referring the yard line the ball would need to be snapped from. KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The World Series champions have failed to make the postseason for the fourth year in a row.Kendrys Morales and Alex Gordon keyed an eighth-inning rally and Kansas City beat the Minnesota Twins 5-2 on Wednesday night, but the Royals were still knocked out of playoff contention.The defending World Series champs were eliminated when Baltimore beat Toronto 3-2 earlier Wednesday.Obviously wed like to be playing a lot more baseball, but the reality of it is were not, said Eric Hosmer, who hit a two-run homer in the third.Morales ground-rule double to right scored Jarrod Dyson, who had doubled and stole third. Gordons single scored Whit Merrifield and pinch-runner Billy Burns.Dyson said he would not be watching postseason games.Its kind of sad and tough to watch postseason when youre not in it, Dyson said.The Twins, who have lost 10 of 11, have dropped 102 games, tying the 1982 team for its highest total since moving to Minnesota for the 1961 season. The Washington Senators lost a franchise-worst 113 games in 1904.Were trying to win games, but its becoming difficult, Twins right-hander Ervin Santana said. But, I think we just try to do too much and we forgot about the little things. Its a game. You just have to prepare to be better for the next year.Taylor Rogers (3-1), the fourth of five Twins pitchers, took the loss after allowing three runs, three hits and two walks while retiring only one of the six batters he faced.Joakim Soria (5-8) worked a scoreless eighth to pick up the victory. Wade Davis got his 27th save in 30 chances.Royals left-hander Jason Vargas tossed five shutout innings, allowing four hits, striking out six and walking one. He threw 53 strikes in 87 pitches, leaving with a 2-0 lead in his third start since having Tommy John surgery in 2015. Vargas finishes with a 2.25 ERA, allowing three runs and eight hits while striking out 11 and walking three in 12 innings.It was nice to have a reward as far as having some success once I was able to step underneath the lights and really get out there for real, Vargas said..dddddddddddd. Going into the offseason, I was just hoping for health as far as being able to have the normal offseason. So to have a nice outing like this before is a nice comfortable feeling.Rookie Kevin McCarthy, however, did not hold the lead for long. McCarthy yielded a two-run two-out home run to Kennys Vargas in the sixth. After McCarthy walked the next two batters, Peter Moylan was summoned to face John Ryan Murphy, retiring him on a comebacker.The Vargas homer snapped a Twins streak of 106 innings without more than one run. According to Elias, it is the longest such streak in the majors since the Philadelphia Phillies went 109 innings in 1942 without scoring multiple runs.We just kind of stagnated from there, Twins manager Paul Molitor said.Hosmer hit a two-run homer, his 25th, off Santana in the third. The Royals did not get another hit until Dysons one-out double in the eighth.NO REPEATThe Royals follow the San Francisco Giants (in 2013 and 15) and Boston Red Sox (in 2014) in failing to reach the playoffs after winning the World Series.ATTENDANCE DECLINEThe Wednesday attendance of 23,437 pushed the Royals season total to 2,445,361 after 77 home dates. After 77 Kauffman Stadium dates last year, the Royals had pulled 2,564,750 through the turnstiles, a decline of 119,389.ZERO AT KCThe Twins dropped to 0-9 at Kauffman Stadium. They have never finished a season winless at Kansas City.TRAINERS ROOMTwins: 1B Joe Mauer (hamstring injury) was not in the lineup, but Molitor said he was available to pinch hit.Royals: OF Lorenzo Cain, who has played only one game in September because of left wrist inflammation, will not play again this season. There is no need to push him, Royals manager Ned Yost said.UP NEXTTwins: RHP Kyle Gibson, who went to the University of Missouri, will make his 11th career start against the Royals.Royals: LHP Danny Duffy is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three outings against the Twins this season. cheap falcons jerseys cheap ravens jerseys cheap bills jerseys cheap bears jerseys cheap bengals jerseys cheap cowboys jerseys cheap lions jerseys cheap texans jerseys cheap colts jerseys cheap jaguars jerseys cheap chiefs jerseys cheap rams jerseys cheap dolphins jerseys cheap vikings jerseys cheap saints jerseys cheap giants jerseys cheap jets jerseys cheap eagles jerseys cheap steelers jerseys cheap 49ers jerseys ' ' '